The closer the ceasefire agreement gets, the more the market panics? The real storm may come after the signing

Many people think:
Signing an agreement = risk is eliminated.
But what the capital markets are truly afraid of is:
After the signing.
Because now global markets have already started celebrating the "peace rally" in advance.
Crude oil pulls back.
U.S. stocks rebound.
BTC becomes restless again.
The problem is, what’s exposed this time isn’t a permanent ceasefire.
It’s:
A 30-day buffer window.
In other words, now it’s more like:
“Pause first, then discuss the future.”
This situation is actually the most tormenting for the market.
Because in the short term, it looks somewhat positive.
But long-term uncertainty remains huge.
Especially since Iran has not fully accepted all the conditions yet.
This means:
Variables could reappear at any time in the future.
And the biggest risk in the market now is:
Everyone has already over-anticipated the good news.
If there’s no unexpected progress afterward, sentiment can easily turn negative.
Especially since BTC has recently been very much like a market sentiment detector.
When peace expectations heat up, it rises.
When risk aversion returns, it may not necessarily fall sharply.
Because more and more funds are starting to see BTC as:
An alternative asset outside the traditional financial system.
That’s also why BTC is becoming harder to define simply now.
It’s both like tech stocks.
And like digital gold.
And what truly determines the trend next isn’t actually Trump.
But:
Whether Iran will truly loosen up.
Because the most complex part of Middle Eastern issues has never been “whether they can negotiate.”
But:
After negotiations, whether long-term stability can be maintained.