Has the market already opened the champagne? The real big finale might not be so soon

There is a classic question in the capital markets:
"Who runs faster, expectations or reality?"
The usual answer is:
Expectations.
Recently, the Middle East ceasefire news is a typical example.
The agreement hasn't been officially signed yet.
The market has already started celebrating in advance.
Oil prices have pulled back.
Risk assets are rebounding.
BTC is becoming active again.
But the real issue is:
What we're talking about now is actually just a "ceasefire memorandum."
And the core is:
A 30-day buffer period.
This means:
It's more like a short-term ceasefire now, not a complete resolution.
But many funds in the market have already started trading for "long-term peace."
This is very dangerous.
Because if progress later falls short of expectations, the market will quickly reverse sentiment.
Especially oil prices.
The current decline is more driven by expectations.
Not a fundamental change in supply and demand.
If the situation fluctuates repeatedly, crude oil could violently surge again at any time.
And BTC is increasingly acting as a magnifier of global liquidity.
As long as the market is Risk On, it surges.
As long as risk returns, it oscillates violently.
But in the long run, BTC's position is indeed changing.
More and more institutions are starting to see it as:
A hedge asset against global uncertainty.
So the most interesting part of the market now is:
Everyone is chasing risk assets,
While secretly holding safe-haven positions.
Because everyone knows:
The hardest part to predict in the Middle East situation is not the start,
But the end. #WCTC交易王PK