After the ceasefire window opens, the most dangerous trades actually appear

Many people think:
War is the most dangerous.
But veteran traders know:
The real danger often comes when it's "about to end."
Because at this time, the market is most prone to:
Collective misjudgment.
Recently, news of a ceasefire in the Middle East has been heating up, and the market has started frantically trading on peace expectations.
Risk assets are rising.
Oil is pulling back.
BTC is becoming lively again.
But the problem is:
The current negotiations are far from reaching a truly safe stage.
Especially the 30-day buffer period, which is essentially:
"Let's not fight for now."
It doesn't mean the problem is permanently solved.
And now the market has already started to pre-borrow future gains.
In this situation, if variables appear later, volatility will be very intense.
Because the more people are optimistic in advance, the easier it is to trigger a stampede later.
And BTC is increasingly acting like a global sentiment amplifier.
Peace, it rises.
Safe-haven, it may not necessarily fall through.
Because more and more institutions are starting to allocate BTC long-term to hedge against global uncertainties.
So the most surreal part of the market now is:
Risk assets are rising.
The safe-haven logic hasn't disappeared.
The entire market seems to be trading two worlds at the same time.
One bets on peace.
One bets on chaos.
And the real big trend in the future might only be revealed after the final answer of "whether to fight or not" is announced.
#Gate广场五月交易分享