I recently reviewed Raul Pal's speech from one of the major conferences in Dubai, where he analyzed the macro picture for crypto in 2026. Honestly, much of what he voiced aligns with what I observe in the market.

The main thesis is simple — liquidity explains about 90% of Bitcoin's movements, not the four-year halving cycles as commonly believed. Raul Pal emphasizes that several factors are converging now: fiscal stimulus, money issuance, changes in banking regulation, and dollar weakening. According to him, all this should start to take effect as early as January-February, and if it doesn't, his thesis falls into the negative.

What caught my attention was his analysis of sentiment. Everyone is shouting about a bear market, but he rightly notes: if it's a bear, why is Bitcoin at new highs while everything else isn't? This is a normal correction within a bull market, which is historically typical. Remember, in 2021 there was a 50% drop before new ATHs.

Raul Pal highlighted several macro indicators to watch: global M2, dollar dynamics, Fed and Treasury policies, changes in banking regulation like SLR. It sounds complicated, but the essence is that this creates liquidity in the system, and the leading cryptocurrency is catching it.

Regarding altcoins, an interesting point. Many ask, where is the altseason? Raul Pal says that altcoins move following the business cycle, specifically following the ISM manufacturing index. When ISM crosses above 50, risk appetite will explode, and capital will start rotating into altcoins. Bitcoin dominance will fall, and smart contract platforms will soar.

About AI versus crypto — he disagrees with the narrative that altcoins will lose. Retail investors always chase maximum growth potential. If Bitcoin doubles, an altcoin can grow tenfold. Plus, crypto remains underfunded compared to AI stocks, leaving room for capital inflows.

Token dilution and unlocks? Raul Pal believes this is not a problem. The scale of capital entering crypto for the first time is much larger. Each cycle, inflows grow. The main thing is to choose assets wisely.

His framework for selecting altcoins is strict: stick to main L1s (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Sui), monitor real network metrics (active users, transaction value), evaluate everything based on Solana as a benchmark, and only turn when data and charts align. Raul Pal switched to Sui at the beginning of the cycle precisely because it is one of the fastest-growing networks, and the fundamentals matched the technical pattern.

His narratives for 2026: AI plus crypto (the real version, not hype), stablecoins and payment networks, high-throughput L1s, digital art and NFTs as a counterbalance.

His final straightforward advice: most people lose money because they FOMO into rotations, overtrade, chase yields, and use leverage. Raul Pal recommends simply holding a basket of quality assets without leverage, limiting speculation to 5-10%. If people just held such a basket, they would outperform 99.9% of short-term traders.

If his thesis is correct, 2026 could become one of the most powerful liquidity cycles. The main thing is not to spoil it.