Been watching the manufacturing data closely and there's something interesting happening right now. The ISM just hit 52.7—highest since 2022—and it's been above 50 for three straight months now. That's significant because it breaks a nearly three-year contraction streak, the longest dry spell in over a century of records.

Here's what caught my attention: when will crypto bull run start seems to correlate with exactly these kinds of economic shifts. Looking back at 2013, 2017, and 2021, every major crypto rally happened right after manufacturing activity picked up like this. Improved liquidity, risk appetite returning, money flowing into assets that had been beaten down. Bitcoin already crossed $100k despite rough macro conditions, so imagine what happens when conditions actually improve.

Raoul Pal made a point I think is worth considering. He's saying crypto isn't really following the traditional four-year halving cycle anymore—it's tracking the broader business cycle. His take is this is a five-year cycle, and if the ISM peaks by 2026, that actually aligns with where we are right now. The question of when will crypto bull run start might actually be less about halving dates and more about this macro expansion.

There are two ways people are looking at this. The traditional view still leans on halving events—April 2024 halving followed by consolidation, then new highs in 2025, with the peak potentially stretching into 2026 or beyond. The macro view says the PMI expansion means liquidity is returning, which historically accelerates risk asset rallies beyond typical timelines.

What's interesting is the institutional positioning. Coinbase's survey showed 74% of institutional investors expect prices to rise in the next 12 months, and 73% are planning to increase their crypto exposure in 2026. That's not small money sitting on the sidelines.

Of course, external factors matter—geopolitical stuff, regulatory moves, interest rate direction. But the manufacturing data is a genuine shift. When will crypto bull run start might actually depend more on whether this expansion holds than on any calendar date. If liquidity keeps improving and economic conditions keep easing, we could see acceleration beyond what the traditional cycle models predict. Worth watching closely over the next few months.