Lately, I've been watching options markets, and the more I look, the more I feel that time value is a "slow knife," which eats away at whoever is on the other side depending on your stance.


The most uncomfortable situation for buyers is when the direction is correct but not fast enough; as time passes, it gradually chips away at their position.
For sellers, collecting a little "rent" every day feels pretty good, but honestly, they're betting on no black swan events; if something serious happens, they could lose everything they've gained so far all at once, and it might not even be enough.

Coincidentally, the main public blockchain is about to upgrade/maintain, and everyone in the group is speculating whether the project will migrate.
I'm instead paying attention to the speed of liquidity withdrawal on-chain: when people start moving their chips around, the seller's "stability" can suddenly become very fragile.
When implied volatility (IV, which is the market's expectation of sharp fluctuations) rises, sellers are more like facing a sword with no armor.
Anyway, I’d rather earn a little less than rely on luck to survive an unexpected weekend.
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