Been watching the manufacturing data pretty closely lately, and there's something interesting brewing that could actually answer when will crypto bull run start. The ISM Manufacturing PMI just hit 52.7—highest we've seen since 2022—and it's been holding above 50 for three straight months now. That's expansion territory after nearly three years of contraction, which is pretty significant historically.

What caught my attention is how this lines up with past crypto cycles. Back in 2013, 2017, and 2021, whenever manufacturing activity picked up and liquidity improved, risk assets including crypto started moving. The macro investor Raoul Pal has been vocal about this connection, saying Bitcoin basically follows the ISM. He's suggesting this cycle might be different from the traditional four-year halving structure—more like a five-year cycle that could peak around 2026.

So when will crypto bull run start depends on which framework you believe. There's the traditional view where Bitcoin halving events drive the cycle. We saw the pattern after April 2024—consolidation followed by new highs in 2025. If that holds, major peaks could stretch into 2026 or beyond. Then there's the macro-driven angle: if PMI stays elevated and liquidity keeps improving, the cycle could accelerate faster than the textbook timeline suggests.

Institutional players seem to be positioning for this. Coinbase surveyed their institutional clients and found 74% expect crypto prices rising within 12 months, with 73% planning to increase exposure in 2026. That's pretty meaningful conviction.

Obviously there are wildcards—geopolitical stuff, regulatory moves, interest rate decisions. But the manufacturing expansion is a solid signal that conditions are shifting. Whether when will crypto bull run start is weeks, months, or quarters away probably depends on how quickly this liquidity flows into riskier assets. The setup looks interesting though.