Just came across something interesting about market cycles that's been floating around for a while. There's this old theory from Samuel Benner dating back to 1875 where he tried to map out when financial markets go through boom, recession, and panic phases. It's kind of wild how people have been thinking about periods when to make money for over 150 years.

So the basic idea breaks down into three distinct phases. First, there are the panic years – roughly every 18 to 20 years – where financial crises hit hard and markets collapse. Think 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, 2019, and looking ahead to 2035, 2053. During these periods you really need to sit tight and not panic sell. That's when most people make their biggest mistakes.

Then you've got the boom years where prices are rising and markets are recovering strong. These are your windows to actually take profits and sell. The theory suggests years like 1928, 1943, 1953, 1960, 1968, 1973, 1980, 1989, 1996, 2000, 2007, 2016, 2020 – and we're looking at 2026 potentially being another one. This is when most people should be thinking about exiting positions.

What's interesting is the third phase – the recession and decline years. 1924, 1931, 1942, 1951, 1958, 1969, 1978, 1985, 1996, 2005, 2012, 2023. Prices are low, everything feels grim, but that's actually when smart money is accumulating. This is the best time to buy if you've got the conviction and capital.

The whole framework is basically: load up during the hard times when nobody wants to buy, hold through the chaos, then sell when boom years hit and everyone's excited again. It's a simple three-step process for periods when to make money.

Obviously this isn't gospel – markets get influenced by politics, wars, tech breakthroughs, policy changes, all kinds of unpredictable stuff. But as a long-term cyclical pattern, it's worth paying attention to. We're in an interesting point right now where we could be entering one of those boom phases, so might be worth thinking about where your portfolio is positioned.