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I just realized that quite a few of you still don't fully understand token unlock – this directly affects the price of the cryptocurrency you are holding. So today, I want to explain it in more detail.
Token unlock basically is the process of releasing tokens from a locked (vesting) state into circulation. These tokens can belong to the team, early investors, advisors, or the community – all following a specific schedule designed from the project's launch.
What makes token unlocks so important? It's actually simple – when a large amount of tokens are unlocked at the same time, holders (especially early investors or the team) may sell to take profits, creating enormous selling pressure. If there isn't enough buying power to absorb it, the price will plummet.
I see three main factors that determine whether an unlock has a strong impact or not. First is market sentiment – when investors know an unlock is coming, they often sell beforehand, creating downward pressure early on. Second is the scale of the unlock – if the unlocked tokens make up a high proportion of the circulating supply, the impact will be stronger. Third is who receives the tokens – if they go to the team or early investors (who have significant profits), the likelihood of selling to take profits is higher compared to tokens allocated to the community.
Let me give some real examples to help you visualize. About a year ago, when TRUMP unlocked 40 million tokens (about 20% of the circulating supply), the market was genuinely concerned. However, the price not only didn't fall but increased over 60% afterward due to positive news. Currently, TRUMP is trading at $2.36, but this shows that token unlocks don't always lead to price drops.
But with APT, it's different. All three unlocks followed a similar pattern – the price was at a local bottom before the unlock, then gradually increased and hit a peak right at the unlock time. However, during the third unlock, this pattern was disrupted because Bitcoin dropped sharply, dragging APT down as well. Now, APT is at $1.02, down 3.17% in the past 24 hours.
So how can you avoid being caught off guard? I recommend monitoring the unlock schedule early through tools like Tokenomist or DeFiLlama. But more importantly, you need to analyze carefully – who will receive the tokens, do they have an incentive to sell, and are there any accompanying news.
Remember that not every token unlock causes a price decline. Don't rely solely on the unlock schedule; combine technical analysis, news, and market sentiment to make smart decisions. Wishing you success in your trading!