Tonight, the whole world is betting on the same thing

Nikkei hits a new high, U.S. stocks hit new highs, and BTC surges past 80,000—

Do you think this is “fundamental resonance”?

No, this is a collective climax created by liquidity.

Tonight’s FOMC is the real test.

Do you know what’s most terrifying right now?

It’s not that BTC is falling,

It’s that—everything is rising.

The Nikkei breaks 61,000, a historical all-time high;

U.S. stocks, European stocks, BTC, gold, and copper are all rushing up in unison.

Do you think this is a global economic boom?

This is the bubble that’s been forced out because the world’s money has nowhere to go.

Right tonight, the FOMC will release its result.

Markets broadly expect rates to remain unchanged, at 3.50%-3.75%,

Looks stable?

But look at the moves by BTC bulls—

Over the past 24 hours, futures open interest has exploded by 189 million. 189 million. Around 80,000, big money is desperately piling into long positions.

The funding rate clearly favors the longs.

Institutions are here, ETFs are here, futures are here.

Retail investors? They don’t even deserve to sit at the table anymore.

But historical data slams the brakes—painfully:

In 2025, across 8 FOMC meetings, BTC declines after 7 of them.

“Buy the expectation, sell the fact”—

This script has been played out more than once.

Last night, the ADP employment data came out: new jobs of 109,000—far above expectations.

You think strong employment data is a good thing?

For rate-hike expectations, it’s the worst kind of “good news.”

The new chair, Waller, was never exactly a soft touch to begin with.

With employment this solid, he can only get even more hawkish.

Now, the market has a deadly illusion:

Everyone thinks “global risk assets rising together” = fundamentals are good.

This is liquidity’s final frenzy.

Nikkei’s new high is built on yen depreciation;

U.S. stocks’ new high is propped up by rate-cut expectations;

BTC’s surge past 80,000 is held up by leverage.

The moment FOMC throws even a single “surprise”—

Even if it’s just hawkish wording—every bubble will burst at the same time.

Not collapsing one by one, but collapsing all at once.

Tonight, the bulls are betting:

Bet that Waller won’t be too harsh, bet that the employment data will be ignored, bet that liquidity will keep flooding the market.

But you need to think it through clearly:

Historically, every time things “rally together,” it ends with everything “falling together.”

Once the FOMC bell rings,

Who’s swimming naked becomes perfectly clear.#美股加密概念股走强 $BTC