After oil prices soared to $114, the only question left in the global markets is: who will be the first to back down?

Now the global financial market is very much like a large game of Werewolf.
The US is watching Iran;
Iran is watching the US;
Wall Street is watching the Federal Reserve;
And retail investors are watching margin call messages.
After the Fouchira incident, crude oil prices surged rapidly, and the market’s originally optimistic "free trade" logic was forced to pause.
Previously, everyone believed:
Low oil prices would help the US reduce inflation,
And thus promote rate cuts.
So funds flooded into risk assets.
But now, high oil prices reignite inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve may continue to keep interest rates high.
As a result, the market is beginning to "reprice."
Why has Bitcoin's volatility suddenly increased?
Because BTC is no longer just a "crypto asset."
It’s increasingly like a sentiment indicator of global liquidity.
When liquidity is loose, it rises;
When geopolitical risks heat up, it also rises;
But prolonged high interest rates can suppress it.
So now, BTC is especially like:
A student taking three exams at the same time.
Will the Oman negotiations change the situation?
The key is not whether "an agreement is fully reached," but whether there are signs of cooling down.
As long as the market believes the conflict won't escalate fully, oil prices may fall back.
And once oil prices pull back, risk asset sentiment will recover significantly.
But if negotiations fail, the market may further shift into risk aversion mode.
My trading strategy:
First, control leverage multiples.
Second, focus on whether gold and the US dollar are strengthening together.
If both rise simultaneously, it indicates very strong risk aversion in the market.
Third, BTC is more likely to fluctuate widely in the short term rather than surge in a single direction.
The current market environment is especially suitable for an old saying:
"Surviving is more important than making quick money."#比特币站稳8万关口