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So-called "Never Sell" plan? --Strategy company plans to sell some Bitcoin

Today, a news release from Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) caused a stir, as its CEO Michael Saylor stated during the Q1 earnings call on Tuesday, "We might sell some Bitcoin to pay dividends, just to inject some confidence into the market, and also to communicate that we have been successful." The die-hard bulls who pledged "Never Sell" are also starting to offload, though it’s just a small "buy low, sell high" move driven by liquidity pressure, but the impact remains quite evident:

1. Limited short-term market impact but profound psychological effects

‌1. Actual selling pressure is controllable

Although Strategy holds 818k BTC (worth about $67 billion), it explicitly states it will only sell a small portion to pay approximately $1.5 billion in annual dividends. At the current price of $82k/BTC, the annual sale volume is about 18k BTC (2.2% of its holdings), far below the nearly 90k BTC purchased in a single quarter. This scale has limited impact in a market with daily trading volumes of hundreds of billions of dollars.

‌2. Breaking the "Never Sell" belief as a symbolic gesture

The company previously built a narrative of Bitcoin scarcity through a "buy-and-hold" strategy. This shift toward active balance sheet management shakes the market’s perception of it as a "permanent Bitcoin hoarder." Investors may reassess other institutions’ holding strategies, increasing concerns over concentration risk.

2. Long-term effects on Bitcoin’s supply and demand structure

‌1. Supply tightening trend remains unchanged

Strategy increased its holdings by 89.6k BTC in Q1 2026, with an annualized purchase rate of 350k BTC, surpassing Bitcoin’s annual issuance of 164k BTC. Even with small sales, the net increase will intensify market supply shortages.

‌2. New financing models ease selling pressure

By issuing perpetual preferred shares (STRC) with an 11.5% annual yield, the company has reduced reliance on equity dilution and Bitcoin sales. In Q1, it raised $5.58 billion through STRC, and this "using debt interest to replace Bitcoin selling" model could become the new normal.

3. Market reactions and potential risks

‌1. Price resilience

After the announcement, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $81k but quickly rebounded, reaching $82k the next day, indicating the market is more focused on macro factors like easing Middle East tensions and Fed rate cut expectations.

2. Key risk indicators warning

Market Net Asset Value ratio (mNAV): currently at 1.14x; falling below 1x could trigger larger-scale sell-offs.

Debt coverage capacity: The company’s cash reserves of $2.25 billion are only enough to cover 18 months of dividends. If Bitcoin remains below $76k long-term cost basis, it may be forced to accelerate sales.

Conclusion: Short-term disturbances unlikely to change the trend, but business model faces pressure

Strategy’s shift is essentially an adaptive adjustment of its "digital asset treasury" model under bear market pressure. Although short-term sales are controllable and offset by macro positives, the event reveals two deeper changes:

‌1. Rationalization of institutional holding strategies: shifting from faith-driven to active asset-liability management, potentially leading more enterprises to adopt dynamic holdings.

‌2. Accelerated Bitcoin financialization: financial innovations like STRC convert Bitcoin holdings into income-generating assets, but high dividend burdens (11.5%) also increase market fragility.

‌Future monitoring should focus on: changes in the company’s mNAV, the sustainability of STRC financing, and whether Bitcoin can hold above the critical $80k cost line. If macro conditions weaken, localized sell-offs could escalate into systemic risks.