The night before Oman negotiations! Who will crash first: oil prices, BTC, or US stocks? The market is playing out a "Three-Body Crisis."

Currently, the global market is like three people fighting over the steering wheel at the same time.
The US wants to suppress oil prices;
Iran wants to hold onto its chips;
Wall Street wants to continue the bull market.
The problem is, these three things are hard to achieve simultaneously.
Trump previously promoted the "Freedom Plan," and the market logic was quite straightforward:
Low oil prices → low inflation → Federal Reserve cuts interest rates → risk assets rise.
So Bitcoin surged to $80k, and tech stocks in the US stock market became active again.
But as soon as the Fuchaira incident occurred, all logic instantly stalled.
After crude oil soared to $114, the market started to worry:
If oil prices keep rising, the Fed might not dare to loosen monetary policy at all.
At this point, the most awkward thing is tech stocks.
Because AI, crypto, and this round of growth stocks are all fundamentally built on the expectation of "future liquidity improvement."
Once high oil prices reignite inflation, this story becomes less convincing.
So will the Oman negotiations have a result?
I think there will be a "superficial achievement."
The reason is simple:
The US doesn’t want oil prices to keep exploding before the election;
Iran also doesn’t want the conflict to escalate fully.
So both sides are more likely to adopt a classic approach:
Be tough on words,
But actually de-escalate.
The market’s biggest fear isn’t bad news, but "uncertainty."
As long as the negotiations can release some signals of easing, funds will dare to flow back into risk assets.
But if negotiations collapse and oil prices continue to hit $120, global market volatility could further spike.
Many institutions are already adjusting their strategies:
Reduce growth tech stocks;
Increase holdings in gold and energy;
Lower leverage.
My view:
Bitcoin may enter a "high volatility oscillation period" in the short term.
Because BTC is now simultaneously affected by:
Liquidity expectations,
Safe-haven sentiment,
Dollar trend,
Three forces pulling in different directions.
In terms of trading strategy:
First, avoid chasing orders during extreme emotions.
Second, focus on the US dollar index and US bond yields.
Third, the real big opportunities often come during market panic.
Many people always want to buy at the lowest point,
But in reality, they often buy at the "viewing platform halfway up the mountain."#Gate广场五月交易分享