Oil prices "soar" overnight! Trump’s Free Plan hits the brakes suddenly—Bitcoin laughs first, then cries?

During the May Day holiday, the market atmosphere was like a barbecue stall—lively, relaxed, everyone shouting bull market.
But then the Middle East suddenly "spiced up," Fouchairah oil tankers were attacked, and Brent crude oil shot straight up to $114,
Global traders instantly shifted from "vacation mode" back to "life-saving mode."
Previously, Trump loudly launched the "Free Plan," which is actually quite simple: lower energy prices, release liquidity, stimulate risk appetite.
As a result, US stocks rose, cryptocurrencies surged, and Bitcoin even re-claimed $80k.
Many crypto players have already started fantasizing that "$100k is just the starting point."
But reality is always more exciting than candlestick charts.
Once oil prices surge, US inflation expectations immediately rise, and the Fed’s room to cut interest rates shrinks.
The originally anticipated "liquidity feast" suddenly turns into an "inflation horror movie."
So funds start switching modes: from "all-in risk assets" to "save your life first."
Now the key question is: how long will the "Free Plan" pause last?
The answer actually depends on two variables.
First, look at the Oman negotiations.
If Iran is willing to make concessions on uranium enrichment, even symbolically, the market will immediately interpret it as "Middle East situation easing."
Oil prices could quickly fall back to the $95-100 range, and risk assets will rebound.
Second, look at US inflation.
If the US CPI remains stubborn, even if the Fed doesn’t raise rates verbally, the market will automatically enter a "long-term high interest rate" trading mode.
By then, not just altcoins, even Nasdaq will start to weaken.
Currently, the biggest contradiction in the market is quite interesting:
The higher oil prices go, the greater the geopolitical risk;
The greater the geopolitical risk, the stronger Bitcoin’s "safe-haven narrative";
But if oil prices get too high, it will suppress global liquidity.
So BTC now is like a delivery person caught between two trucks—dangerous on both sides.
My strategy is simple:
First, don’t chase high energy stocks. The $114 oil price already carries emotional premium.
Second, watch the support in the $76k-$78k range for Bitcoin.
If it holds, it indicates institutional funds haven’t left.
Third, in the short term, gold might be the strongest. Because it benefits from both "safe-haven" and "rate cut expectations."
In the next two weeks, the market won’t be boring.
Because now, it’s not technicals driving the trend, but news headlines dictating candlesticks.
Many traders are watching the charts while also frantically refreshing Middle East news. ##比特币站稳8万关口