IOSG On-site Observation: Trump's Crypto Luncheon and "Young America"

Author: Turbo Guo, IOSG Ventures; Source: X, @IOSGVC

What does a young person look like?

It might be brave, daring to imagine, eager to succeed quickly, and at the same time afraid of missing out, aggressive, and passionate. A 250-year history can be considered young for a country.

My feeling comes from my experience attending the closed-door Trump Crypto Conference & Gala Luncheon at Mar-a-Lago. Mar-a-Lago is Trump’s residence and winter White House, as well as a private social club. The venue also determined the uniqueness of this event, like a gathering of young, wealthy, flamboyant friends—every chair was gold.

Thirty-six Months Countdown

The most obvious trait of youth is radicalism. Tony Robbins is one of the speakers; he is a renowned speaker and bestselling author. He repeatedly said one word on stage: thirty-six months. He said within thirty-six months, robots will replace a large number of jobs; within thirty-six months, quantum computing can reverse crack old encryption algorithms; within thirty-six months, autonomous driving will disrupt eight million driver positions. He packaged this number into a countdown: The thirty-six month countdown has begun. Thirty-six months sounds short and unsettling, but he had no intention of making it more cautious.

Nikil, founder of Alchemy, offered a different kind of radicalism. He directly threw out a statement: Within five years, the funds transferred by AI agents will surpass the total of all humans worldwide, and not a single dollar will go through a bank account again. He demonstrated his agent “Dave the Minion” on stage, showing how it helps him book Uber, control twenty devices at home, buy flowers for his girlfriend, and monitor his body fat percentage increase in Costa Rica.

Offstage, I continued chatting with Nikil. They mentioned that the company will soon launch agent cards, most likely white-label solutions, allowing other projects to issue their own agent payment cards under their brand. This product logic aligns with Nikil’s statement on stage: “Within five years, no dollar transactions will go through the banking system.”

Wenwen also expressed a similar view. She pointed out that AI training costs decrease by 75% annually, inference costs by 98%, making it the most “deflationary” technology in history. She said AI-generated content first surpassed human content in 2025 and predicted that within ten years, it will surpass the total amount of all human writing ever produced. I was also fortunate to chat with her briefly; she has a generally bullish outlook on the entire industry, without being particularly conservative.

Listening to these predictions together, there’s a common scent: everyone is convinced that within the next three to five years, the world will be reshaped along the path they describe. This is very American, very youthful expression.

American Entrepreneurship: Placing Yourself in the Middle Layer

If radical predictions showcase the “thought” of youth, then resource integration demonstrates the “behavior” of youth. A common way for Americans to succeed is to connect different circles, build influence, and become a hub of information and resources.

Tony Robbins exemplifies this path to the extreme.

He walks down from the stage, weaving between small round tables, no more than half a meter from me. He talks about many topics—AI, crypto, robots. He also mentions Salesforce’s Marc Benioff, Figure AI’s Brett Adcock, three 22-year-old founders who dropped out of college from Mercor, IBM Vice Chairman Gary Cohn, and others, building his credibility with these names. Honestly, his understanding of crypto isn’t particularly deep, and his judgments aren’t necessarily more accurate than any founder at this event, but he’s deeper than the average person in each field and shallower than professionals. This position is the most influential in spreading ideas.

Many CEOs of large companies probably no longer conduct frontline research themselves, so they sit and listen to Robbins. Robbins chats with experts across industries, gains insights, organizes information, and then shares it with these CEOs. He also writes books, bringing information to the public. He skillfully combines the identities of bestselling author, resource integrator, and top speaker. He demonstrates the ultimate way of doing business: resource integration in America.

Similar logic can be seen in others at the event. Andrea from Trendex introduced me to the Superstar coin concept, which tokenizes members of the French national football team, F1 drivers, and various sports stars. Buying a certain amount grants specific fan benefits. For friends familiar with crypto, this isn’t new, but not everyone can sign so many deals. Interestingly, they brought the World Cup trophy to the event—my first close look at it. The essence of such projects is distribution: you’re not selling technology, but the influence accumulated by the star.

Another core conclusion related to influence came from my chat with former a16z GP Arianna Simpson. If all startups in the future use the same AI development tools, then the ability to ship the same product means technical differences are converging. Distribution channels and user acquisition will instead become decisive advantages. This is a judgment from an investor’s perspective, not a technical one.

Enthusiastic Audience

If you only look at the stage, this youth seems abstract. But shifting focus from the stage to the audience makes things more tangible.

The most interesting part is taking photos together. People on stage are immediately surrounded by the audience, forming a small circle. This radicalism isn’t just a privilege of speakers; it exists among the audience too. Everyone wants to leave evidence—proof that they were in this room, talked to that person, and caught that moment.

The speakers predict the future with 36 months or 5 years, while the audience captures the present with photos. Both share the same mindset: fear of missing out. It’s a very real mirror.

People already in the room don’t need to prove themselves anymore

But there was a completely different group present that day. They entered the venue, briefly networked, then sat down to listen to the speeches. The whole process didn’t seem particularly exciting. They didn’t rush for photos, didn’t approach the guests, and didn’t applaud at every data point.

Perhaps, when someone truly feels they belong somewhere, they won’t be especially excited about it.

Among them are some veteran representatives who have been attending for over a decade, some are close friends, and some treat such events as casual gatherings. For them, Mar-a-Lago isn’t a status symbol but an extension of their daily life. They sit in the same room as those eager to take photos, but live on two very different frequencies.

Seeing these two groups together actually presents the full picture of this event.

Young America

This country, at least among the people at this event, didn’t show an experienced, mature atmosphere. Instead, it felt like an ambitious, eager-to-prove-it, loud young person. The crypto industry itself has this vibe—just recognized by regulators, just received friendly policies, just seen a softening attitude from the SEC. So it’s both excited and anxious, eager to seize every 36 months, yet afraid of missing every photo opportunity.

Speakers use predictions to lock in the future; audiences use photos to capture the moment; entrepreneurs use resource integration to secure their position; only a small group of people who have been in the room for many years sit quietly in the corner, watching the younger generation assert their presence.

This state has its limitations. Youth tends to overpromise. Every prediction might be slowed down by reality in execution, and a young country can easily confuse “voice” with “ability.” Even more frightening, these predictions and voices can seem especially real in stock prices.

But youth also has its advantages. It’s willing to redo everything, to cram traditional finance, AI, robotics, quantum computing, and stablecoins into a three-year window. It’s willing to take the risk of overpromising because it believes it has time.

When the event ended, everyone was chatting, eating, drinking by the pool outside. My friends and I also casually talked. Honestly, Mar-a-Lago is beautiful—the lawn is well-maintained, the food and drinks are excellent, the sunshine is great. Sitting there gives you a sense of being on a very high position. Such an experience can boost confidence significantly, making it easier to interact with much more capable people later. But whether it can truly change anything depends on each person—like playing at a classmate’s party, everyone seems happy, but in the end, everyone returns home to continue their own anxieties.

Editor’s note: This article is based on the author’s notes and exchanges during the Trump Crypto Conference & Gala Luncheon at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, April 2026.