Will a Great Deposit Migration Really Happen? A Scenario Analysis of Stablecoins Disrupting the Banking System

The core argument of the banking alliance is this: the member reward design of compliant stablecoins will trigger a “great escape of deposits.” Although this argument contains an element of exaggerated lobbying strategy, it is not without basis. From a micro-behavior perspective, when users can hold cash-like assets with an annualized return of 2-3% under a compliant framework, while also using them seamlessly for everyday payments, bank demand deposit rates of 0.1% are indeed not competitive. But the great migration will not happen overnight. Due to the existence of FDIC deposit insurance, the inertia of payment habits, and enterprises’ comprehensive reliance on banking services, the transfer will be gradual. The truly dangerous signal is marginal change: when newly added savings start to exist in the form of stablecoins rather than deposits, banks’ low-cost liabilities will slowly but steadily drain away. What the CLARITY Act accelerates is precisely this process—one that has already moved from 0 to 1, and is now moving from 1 to 10.
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