XAUUSD Bulls Regain Control Amid Fed Uncertainty and Iran Tensions

Gold continues to find support, trading above 4,700 for the third day in a row on Thursday. It's now close to a one-and-a-half-week high during European trading hours. But even with this upward movement, buyers are still being careful. They're holding back from making bigger bets until there's a clearer picture of what's happening with the US-Iran talks.

The US Dollar is still struggling because people don't expect the Federal Reserve to be as aggressive as they once did. This, in turn, is boosting demand for assets that don't pay interest, such as Gold. Yet, the hope that a US-Iran peace deal might happen is making fewer people rush into safe-haven assets, which is currently putting a lid on Gold's price increases.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump mentioned that talks with Iran had moved forward quite a bit in the past day, even saying a deal looked "very possible." News outlet Axios also reported that an agreement between the two sides is nearing completion.

Meanwhile, Iran keeps sending out conflicting messages. Media tied to the state denied there was a wider agreement, stating that Tehran had already turned down certain parts of the US offer. The BBC further noted that Iran is looking over a document which might slowly lead to the Strait of Hormuz reopening and fewer restrictions on its ports.

Even with diplomatic steps forward, the risk of geopolitical issues stays high. This is especially true after Trump warned that if talks fall apart, Iran could face military action "at a much higher level and intensity than before." Disputes about Iran's nuclear program haven't gone away, which means uncertainty is still a factor in the market. This stops those selling Gold from taking full charge.

Looking at the broader economy, the US ADP report on Wednesday indicated that private companies added 109,000 jobs in April. This was better than expected and suggests the US job market is still holding up fairly well. Also, based on CME FedWatch data, traders still think there's a possibility the Fed might raise rates again later this year. This situation is helping the US Dollar avoid bigger drops, and it's also putting a cap on how much Gold can climb.

Today, markets will be watching the US Weekly Jobless Claims figures and listening to speeches from important Federal Reserve officials. But the biggest event everyone is waiting for is Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. This report is likely to have a big impact on what people expect from the Fed and, in turn, Gold's next significant price movement.

XAUTUSDT Technical Outlook – Bulls Regain Momentum

Looking at the 4-hour chart, Gold has moved above its short-term downward trendline. This suggests that after a recent dip, buyers are starting to regain control. The price bounced back sharply from the 4,520–4,550 area where there was strong demand, and it's now trading near 4,726.

This breakout pattern indicates that buyers are getting stronger. At the same time, momentum indicators are also beginning to tick upwards, which supports the idea of a continued recovery.

Key Levels to Watch

Resistance: 4,760 → 4,800 → 4,890

Support: 4,650 → 4,545

If Gold manages to stay above the breakout area around 4,650, buyers might keep aiming for the 4,800 level. However, if it gets rejected at a nearby resistance level, we could see some short-term leveling off. Still, the overall momentum for the near future points to more gains.

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