Bullish approach to the "ceiling": Bitcoin breaks through the $80k mark, approaching the critical resistance at $85k

Author: Glassnode

Compiled by: Aididiao JP, Foresight News

Bitcoin breaks above $80k, approaching a key resistance near $85k, with bulls in control. ETF demand is picking up, short positions still remain, but supply above could limit further gains unless spot market momentum further strengthens.

Summary

Bitcoin has broken through the real market mean of $78.2k and the short-term holder cost basis of $79.1k, holding these levels indicates the previous deep value phase was brief, with the next key resistance at $85.2k.

The 30-day simple moving average of net realized profit/loss has turned positive, accounting for 0.003% of market cap, while long-term holder profits have risen to $180 million daily, still well below the peak of over $1 billion daily during the cycle.

Realized losses remain high, at $479 million daily, exceeding the cycle baseline of 140%. Continuous compression below $200 million daily is needed to confirm a more sustained recovery pattern.

Glassnode’s neutral strategy re-entered positions after Bitcoin recovered around $76k, capturing recent gains while maintaining a focus on downside protection.

US spot ETF inflows turned positive over 30 days, indicating institutional demand is rebounding, supporting a return to the $80k zone.

Despite the rebound, perpetual contract funding rates remain predominantly negative, showing short positions persist, potentially squeezing shorts to push prices higher.

Front implied volatility has re-priced upward after breaking resistance, while realized volatility lags, with positive volatility risk premium rebuilding.

Option skew is mildly neutral to compressed, indicating decreasing downside hedge demand and a shift toward more balanced positions.

There is a cluster of short-term options hedges around $82k, increasing price sensitivity. Market makers’ hedging flows may amplify volatility when spot trades within this range.

On-Chain Insights

Breaking above the mean

Last week, this report noted that rejection at the real market mean and short-term holder cost basis confirmed short-term resistance, while a dense accumulation cluster between $65k and $70k was seen as a foundation to support a rebound to the supply zone at $84k. This rebound has now materialized: Bitcoin surged to $81k, breaking through the real market mean of $78.2k and the short-term holder cost basis of $79.1k, clearing all active trading supply and recent buyer’s average entry price over the past 155 days.

If prices can stay above these levels in the coming week, the deep value phase from early February 2026 will be among the shortest similar phases in Bitcoin market history. Attention now shifts to the next major resistance—around $85.2k, tracking all non-sleeping supply’s cost basis, which is the next structural hurdle the market must face.

Profitability turns positive

With the break above the real market mean, the improved price structure is now reflected in profitability metrics. The 30-day simple moving average of net realized profit/loss (on-chain realized profit minus loss divided by market cap) has turned positive, currently at 0.003% of market cap.

This indicator broadly measures whether investors are overall profit-taking or loss-realizing. Returning to positive after a long dominance of losses is a constructive signal. It bottomed at -0.027% in mid-February, a clearly negative value, but relatively limited compared to the extreme loss realization phases seen during the 2022-2023 bear market. In hindsight, this limited negative depth aligns with the historically brief deep value phase mentioned earlier.

Long-term holders begin to act

As net realized profit turns positive, the key question is whether buyer inflows can withstand the wave of profit-taking by long-term holders. Addresses holding over a year have realized profits with a 14-day simple moving average rising to about $180 million daily, comparable to levels in September 2024 and December 2022.

This group experienced the entire recent bear market, and now with prices rebounding to more favorable levels, they face increasing profit-taking incentives. If this expansion continues, distribution pressure could intensify. Importantly, this metric has not yet approached the early cycle peak of over $1 billion daily, indicating long-term holder selling remains moderate rather than aggressive. Whether the market can sustain high prices above the real market mean while absorbing this gradually increasing supply is a critical test for genuine structural recovery.

Realized losses remain high

Although profit-taking by long-term holders is still modest in the early stages of a potential regime shift, broader market realized losses are a more direct drag on momentum. The 14-day simple moving average of total realized losses is currently $479 million daily, about 140% above the $200 million baseline during more stable periods of this cycle, reflecting investors’ eagerness to exit with smaller losses as prices rise.

Continued compression below $200 million daily would strongly signal that selling pressure is exhausted and the market is shifting toward healthier demand patterns. Until then, the dual pressures of profit-taking by long-term holders and distribution at the top—especially without substantial new buyer catalysts—may anchor the current rebound.

Off-Chain Insights

After recovering from around $66k and stabilizing above $76k, systemic strategies have begun re-engaging risk. Glassnode’s neutral off-chain strategy (which manages exposure using off-chain market data) has re-entered positions, participating in the recent rally toward $80k.

Designed with downside protection in mind, this strategy often lags during sharp rebounds but seeks to avoid deeper retracements and re-enter once conditions improve. This recent shift reflects a more constructive market backdrop, with prices reclaiming key levels and directional momentum rebuilding.

ETF Demand Rebounds

Demand for US spot Bitcoin ETFs has shown a significant uptick, with 30-day net inflows turning clearly positive after a prolonged outflow. This marks a clear inflection point in institutional appetite, which had seen substantial outflows during the decline from late 2025 into early 2026.

The recent acceleration in inflows aligns with Bitcoin’s rebound from about $66k to $80k, indicating renewed confidence among traditional investors. If this trend continues, ETF demand could again become a structural tailwind, strengthening spot market strength and supporting further upside.

Persistent Short Pressure

Despite the price rebounding from around $66k to test $80k again, perpetual contract funding rates remain predominantly negative. This persistent negative funding indicates short positions continue to dominate, with traders willing to pay fees to maintain downside exposure despite recent upward moves.

Historically, such conditions often occur during doubt phases, where rebounds are met with deleveraging rather than aggressive longs. The coexistence of negative funding rates and rising prices suggests the market is climbing the “wall of worry.” Continued pressure on short positions could lead to further upward potential.

Front-end Volatility Repricing After Local Lows

Implied volatility bottomed last weekend, reaching the lowest levels since October 2025 across all tenors, just before the 10/10 event.

Subsequently, Bitcoin broke resistance, bringing volatility back into the market. The 1-week implied volatility has risen about 6 points from its lows, driven by demand for upside and position adjustments.

This move was amplified by gamma sellers rolling their short-dated options, buying back short-term options and selling further out on the curve. As a result, front-end implied volatility re-priced sharply, while longer tenors moved more mildly, up 1-2 volatility points.

This reflects renewed demand for short-dated options, though longer-term volatility expectations have not shifted broadly.

Volatility Risk Premium Rebuilding as Implied Volatility Leads

Bitcoin’s realized volatility continues to decline slowly, with 1-month RV at 35.38%, despite significant price gains over the past week.

This creates a clear divergence: implied volatility re-prices faster after breakouts than realized volatility. The volatility risk premium has turned positive again, with a spread approaching 3 volatility points, indicating renewed demand for short-dated options. This suggests realized volatility has not kept pace with recent price moves. Implied volatility leads, driven by position and front-end demand, while realized volatility remains relatively controlled.

This setup still supports market upside, but the widening spread indicates the market is beginning to price in more future volatility.

Skew Normalization, Downside Demand Diminishing

Skew across all tenors is returning toward neutrality, reflecting a clear shift in positioning. After sustained premium on put options, 25-day skew is now compressing but remains in negative territory.

This trend is most evident at the front end, with 1-week skew approaching zero as downside demand wanes. Since skew is calculated as put minus call premiums, this downward move indicates the premium for puts relative to calls is diminishing. Longer tenors are also declining but more gradually, still retaining some downside premium.

This suggests protective hedges are being unwound rather than added, especially in the short term. As prices recently broke higher, traders are reducing hedges and shifting toward directional exposure. Skew no longer signals strong demand for downside protection.

Massive Short-Term Gamma Clusters Drive Spot Sensitivity

Gamma positions show a significant short-term gamma concentration near the $82k strike, with nearly $2 billion in open interest at the current spot level.

Short-term gamma means market makers’ hedging forces them to buy when prices rise and sell when they fall, creating a feedback loop that can accelerate price movements. This helps explain recent advances toward $83k.

This effect is reinforced by strong buying of call options, which in the past 24 hours accounted for about 40% of volume, adding upward pressure into this zone.

With spot trading within this large short-term gamma cluster, the market becomes highly sensitive, where small fluctuations can trigger outsized reactions. Price action here may remain highly reactive, with increased hedging flows potentially causing sharp moves in either direction.

Conclusion

Bitcoin shows early signs of a structural recovery, reclaiming key on-chain cost basis levels and pushing toward resistance near $85k. Spot demand and ETF inflows are rebuilding, indicating bulls still hold control, but the market is approaching a critical ceiling where supply above could re-emerge.

Meanwhile, derivatives positioning remains skewed toward shorts, creating conditions where further upside could be driven by short squeeze pressures. Options markets are resetting, with short-term gamma present near current levels, increasing the potential for volatility amplification during resistance tests.

Overall, the trend appears constructive, with bullish momentum intact, but the market is entering a more reactive phase. Continued breakthroughs of resistance and sustained spot demand, coupled with easing selling pressure, are necessary to confirm a more durable upward continuation.