Stablecoin Legislation at a Crossroads: The Ice and Fire of the CLARITY Act

The U.S. Senate’s push for the CLARITY Act is standing at a historic turning point. The key deliberation on May 11 is not only a vote on the bill itself, but also a statement of whether the U.S. is willing to set clear boundaries for digital-asset legislation. However, fierce opposition from the banking alliance has made this legislative process full of drama. Their core anxiety centers on the “member rewards” clause—once stablecoin issuers are allowed to provide yield-like incentives, bank deposits will face a substantial, real threat of large-scale migration. This is not unfounded. Issuers such as Circle and Paxos are already ready and waiting to rapidly roll out payment scenarios as soon as regulatory constraints are loosened. The prediction market’s probability of passage exceeding 60% within the year indicates that capital is already pricing in compliance. But politics is never only about economic calculations—whether the two parties can maintain cooperative momentum under banking lobbying pressure is the real highlight of May 11.
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