It's the fifth time.

From 3:40 to 4:10 a.m. on May 7th, the quietest trading period in the early morning Eastern Time, the WTI crude oil futures market suddenly saw nearly $1.7 billion in short positions, establishing nearly 10k contracts. Seventy minutes later, Axios reported that the US and Iran were close to reaching the "14-point agreement," causing oil prices to plummet over 12%, with short-term profits reaching as high as $125 million.

$1.7 billion, at 4 a.m., with no news catalyst, precisely building positions.

This cannot be explained by "technical analysis," nor by "oil prices just happened to fall to support levels." Someone is betting on news.

Axios reporters deny collusion, market insiders say it's "highly unusual." No one admits anything, but no one can explain why such a volume of short positions appeared at 4 a.m.

Let's review this timeline:

April 7th: $950 million in shorts, before the ceasefire announcement.

April 17th: $760 million in shorts, before the Hormuz opening.

April 22nd: $430 million in shorts, before the ceasefire extension.

May 7th: $1.7 billion in shorts, before Axios reported that the US and Iran were close to reaching an agreement.

Five times, totaling over $4 billion.

Congress demands an investigation, CFTC says they will look into it, Axios denies collusion. Each time, it's "doubt → denial → no follow-up."

But the market doesn't care about the investigation results. Before the news is released, smart money has already entered; after the news, ordinary people see "oil prices crash, I missed another opportunity."

This is the most fascinating part of insider trading—

It doesn't need to be discovered, only suspected. Suspicion itself is a chronic erosion of market fairness.

$1.7 billion built at 4 a.m., news announced 70 minutes later, $125 million gained.

Ordinary people are sleeping at this time.

And this is the real-world price of "information asymmetry." #Gate广场五月交易分享 $XTIUSD