‍#Gate广场五月交易分享

‍#Polymarket每日热点

Bitcoin’s recent price action is choppy and the direction is unclear. As for whether Bitcoin will be above how many U.S. dollars on May 7th, I’m choosing the center spot—$80,000. The judgment logic is as follows:

1. Geopolitical risk has not been completely eliminated

It seems the U.S. and Iran are about to make peace, and that’s also the reason the market rose yesterday. But perhaps the negotiations won’t go so smoothly. Today, Iran’s top military adviser said, “Iran will not allow the U.S. to get out of the crisis without paying a price.” The “sword of Damocles” is still hanging—so this market pullback won’t end quickly.

2. Technically, the pullback is not over

Both the 4-hour KDJ and RSI are overbought. The 4-hour MACD histogram is expanding downward with green bars. On the daily chart, there’s a long upper shadow. All these signals indicate that the pullback that started from 82,500 has not ended.

3. The market is deadlocked between bulls and bears

The market is currently in a “shock-and-stagnation” phase. The upside lacks strength, but the bids and support below are very solid. The Fear and Greed Index has returned to neutral, so a sharp crash is unlikely in the short term. That’s why I choose the comparatively steadier $8,000 level.

My betting strategy is: when Bitcoin rebounds, and when the probability of reaching $80,000 gets smaller, I’ll buy the dip to place the bet and capture the maximum gains.