Bitunix Analyst: High Interest Rates and Geopolitical Risks Coexist, Market Enters 'Demand Slowdown but Liquidity Unconstrained' Phase

On May 6, global markets continue to digest three main lines: economic slowdown, energy risks, and prolonged high interest rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates for the third consecutive time, reflecting its ongoing vigilance against persistent inflation. Even though signs of cooling global demand are emerging, uncertainties in energy and supply chains still compel policies to maintain a tight stance. Recent data from the United States indicates a gradual economic slowdown: service sector growth is slowing, and the trade deficit in March was $60.3 billion. Market expectations for the Federal Reserve are increasingly leaning towards ‘delaying interest rate cuts’ rather than resuming rate hikes. This suggests that the real issue currently facing the market is not an immediate economic recession, but rather that high interest rates may persist for a longer period. In terms of geopolitical developments, the U.S. has announced that its offensive military actions against Iran have ‘ended,’ and Trump even announced a suspension of the ‘Freedom Plan’ in an attempt to reduce the risk of further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran continues to emphasize that both sides are in a state of war, and the UAE continues to issue missile threat alerts, indicating that risks to energy supply chains and shipping have not truly been alleviated. In the cryptocurrency market, BTC recently approached a high of $82,000 again, but the derivatives market structure has not strengthened in tandem—funding rates remain negative. This indicates that while prices remain high, the overall market leverage sentiment is still conservative, with short-term funds cautious about chasing prices, reflecting that the current market is more liquidity-driven rather than a full return of risk appetite.