Damn it, why do US stocks always hit new highs?


America has something called 401k. Workers get paid every month, a portion is automatically deducted, and they are forced to buy S&P 500.
No need for confidence, no need for judgment, no need for emotions. All 70 million accounts across the US, blindly investing every month.
When retail investors are selling in a bear market, this money is still buying.
And companies personally step in to support the market.
In 2023, US-listed companies repurchased nearly $800 billion of their own stock.
$800 billion, what does that mean? About one-tenth of the total annual trading volume of the entire A-shares market. Companies use their profits to buy back their own stock on the open market.
The circulating supply shrinks, earnings per share look better, and stock prices are supported.
The most incredible part is that global money keeps it alive.
The dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Doing business worldwide requires dollars. What to do with the excess dollars? Invest in US Treasuries and buy US stocks.
Middle Eastern oil dollars, Asian export surpluses, emerging market foreign exchange reserves.
In the end, all flow back to Wall Street.
When US stocks rise, part of it is the world feeding them blood.
Including China.
Now look at the A-shares. Retail investors account for over 70% of trading volume, sentiment dominates everything.
The scale of stock buybacks by listed companies is roughly zero compared to the US.
No mandatory pension funds continuously entering the market. Foreign capital comes in, but when regulations tighten, they leave.
It’s not that the A-shares are not promising.
Let me say something harsh.
In the past ten years, some people lost half their money in A-shares, while the S&P doubled in the same period.
It’s not that they didn’t work hard; it’s that they chose the wrong team. The gap for those on the wrong side can’t be made up just by effort.
Sigh.
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