I just got itchy again and wanted to chase a position, staring at the K-line with my mind full of "If I don't buy now, I'll miss out"... Then I forced myself to pause: Am I getting new information, or am I simply being pushed by emotions to add to my position? Honestly, most of the time it's the latter.

Recently, many people are watching on-chain large transfers and exchange hot and cold wallet movements as "smart money," right? I also watch, but the more I look, the more I feel it’s more like signal noise: you don’t know if it’s changing custodians, internal rebalancing, or OTC bridging, and trying to interpret it too literally can easily give you a reason to impulsively place an order.

My current simple method is: if I can't clearly explain "why now, why this price, and how to withdraw if I’m wrong," then I won't act. Better to miss out; anyway, getting burned once takes a long time to recover.