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Arthur Hayes: Liquidity is the key factor influencing Bitcoin prices
He pointed out that each round of monetary expansion—from Obama's quantitative easing, to Trump's first-term fiscal stimulus, to Biden's use of short-term bonds to replace long-term bonds to release reverse repo liquidity—has been highly correlated with Bitcoin's rise. Arthur Hayes believes that although the Trump administration has promoted several crypto regulatory bills, Bitcoin has still fallen about 25% over the past approximately 18 months, indicating that regulatory favorable policies do not directly push prices higher.
He also stated that the Trump family previously experienced de-banking, asset freezes, and lawsuits, which may have made them better understand Bitcoin as an asset detached from government control. Arthur Hayes said that if Bitcoin ultimately evolves into a normal financial product on a bank's balance sheet, it will lose its original significance.