$BTC The easing signals released from the US-Iran negotiations have dominated recent markets, and the short-term optimism they brought has surpassed ongoing concerns about potential risks. Over the past 24 hours, both sides' "productive" dialogues, along with the expected timetable to reach an agreement within a week, have significantly improved market risk appetite. If there are no unexpected reversals, this positive progress will build a bottom support for Bitcoin in the short term and drive a technical rebound in price. Therefore, short-term trading should mainly adopt a rebound bullish outlook.

　　However, this is not a one-sided market. On one hand, the US's threat that "non-compliance will restart actions" has introduced uncertainty into the geopolitical situation. On the other hand, the unexpectedly strong US ADP employment data continues to confirm the resilience of the US economy and the necessity of tightening policies, creating ongoing pressure at the macro level. Therefore, during the rebound process, two risks should be watched: first, Bitcoin facing technical selling pressure at key resistance levels; second, after digesting optimism, if subsequent economic data remains strong, it could trigger a short-term pullback in Bitcoin at any time.