$BTC Once the price rises above $80k, it is not recommended to continue chasing longs

The current profit and loss ratio for chasing the rally has become seriously unbalanced, with risks far outweighing opportunities.

This mid-year rebound is essentially just a technical correction within a bear market, not the start of a new bull market.

From a technical perspective, $81,000-$83,000 is an important strong resistance zone. Chasing longs in this range offers limited upside (about 3%), while the potential pullback could reach 10%-30%, making the risk-reward ratio very unfavorable.

A more prudent strategy is to patiently wait for the final bottom of this bear market. The time window is most likely around the end of this year, coinciding with the US midterm elections, when there may be a relatively good opportunity to buy at lower levels.

The core logic behind this is:
• The positive news from US-Iran negotiations has basically been exhausted;
• In the context of high inflation in the US, hopes for rate cuts this year are slim;
• The crypto market is likely to remain volatile and weak throughout the year.

Only after the Federal Reserve truly begins a rate-cut cycle can the crypto market expect to usher in a genuine bull market.