#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin remains steady at $81k, and the derivatives market shows no signs of turbulence: Can the rally continue?

Key points: Although on-chain activity and derivatives market indicators suggest traders are not very engaged, record-breaking net inflows into spot ETFs indicate strong institutional demand. The lack of leveraged long positions may actually fuel further gains, as sellers will be forced to cover if Bitcoin continues to rise.
Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by 7% over the past week, breaking above $81,000 for the first time in over three months. Despite the strong price performance, data shows a lack of investor optimism in the Bitcoin derivatives market, raising questions about the sustainability of this rally.
Bitcoin derivatives fail to reflect investor enthusiasm for $81,000
Macroeconomic factors and multiple on-chain indicators point to weakening demand. The two-month Bitcoin futures basis rate. On Tuesday, Bitcoin monthly futures traded at an annualized premium (basis rate) of 1% over the spot market, well below the neutral threshold.
Typically, sellers require a premium of 4% to 8% to compensate for funding costs. This cautious sentiment began forming in late January when Bitcoin traded at $90,000, which also partly explains the current lack of market enthusiasm. To confirm whether the issue is limited to the futures market, one should assess the demand balance between put options and call options. Under neutral conditions, the trading premium between these instruments usually ranges from -6% to +6%. When professional traders are concerned about downside risk, the delta skew indicator can rise above 6%.
On Tuesday, Bitcoin's delta skew indicator approached the neutral threshold of 6%, but remained slightly bearish. Whales and market makers do not seem overly worried about an imminent crash, but bullish confidence has clearly stalled.
As Brent crude oil prices hover around $110, ongoing inflation concerns are suppressing traders' expectations for economic growth.
According to Cleveland Fed data, U.S. inflation expectations are approaching a 2.5% high over the past decade. Meanwhile, investors are demanding higher returns to hold Eurozone government bonds. Despite these inflation pressures, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index hit a new all-time high on Tuesday, indicating a broader risk appetite environment is forming.
On-chain Bitcoin activity declines, spot ETF accumulates heavily
Bitcoin may benefit from rising risk appetite, but weak on-chain indicators suggest retail demand is waning. Over the past three months, network daily transfer volume plummeted 54%, down to $4.1 billion. At the same time, the number of transfers is near its lowest level in over five years. While Bitcoin's price trend does not strictly depend on on-chain activity, these indicators serve as alternative references for public interest and adoption levels.
Strategy (MSTR US), led by Michael Saylor, paused adding to holdings before earnings reports, possibly sparking unnecessary concerns. The company maintained an aggressive buying pace over the past four weeks. However, analysts expect that, due to Bitcoin's market cap-based accounting treatment, Strategy will report a quarterly net loss.
Weak macroeconomic conditions and declining on-chain activity have negatively impacted the Bitcoin derivatives market, but U.S.-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of $1.16 billion from Friday to Monday, indicating increasing institutional demand.
Ultimately, the Bitcoin derivatives market's lack of demand for leveraged long positions could actually act as a catalyst for further gains.
As prices rise, short sellers may be forced to close positions at a loss, fueling additional upward momentum.