Interest rates to me are like an "invisible leverage switch": when U.S. Treasury yields rise, there's a relatively stable option outside, and risk appetite automatically shrinks a bit; no matter how stubborn the positions, they become lighter. Conversely, when interest rate expectations loosen a bit, everyone dares to move the "loss-absorbing part" onto the chain.

Recently, I often see comparisons between RWA, on-chain yields, and U.S. Treasuries, but honestly, it's not about which is higher, but whose redemption path is clearer: U.S. Treasuries are backed by institutional guarantees, while on-chain yields are often a combination of mechanism guarantees and human nature. Now, when I look at project whitepapers, I pay special attention to phrases like "promising stability" or "almost risk-free"; the more they sound like banks, the more I want to ask questions. My approach is simple: when macro conditions are unfriendly, do less; keep some bullets, and if you really go on-chain, try to choose projects that can clearly explain where the money comes from, rather than relying on new money to lift the value.