Risks on the supply side in energy markets continue to be closely monitored. The latest data released in the U.S. indicate a significant decline in crude oil and fuel inventories, with particularly low levels in gasoline and diesel. Analysts assess that geopolitical developments in the Middle East and ongoing uncertainties around the Strait of Hormuz could increase volatility in the oil market. In the current outlook, supply security and global stock levels remain key factors influencing energy pricing.

The sharp decline in U.S. crude oil stocks and the prolongation of disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz increase the risk of a sudden jump in oil prices. According to API data, U.S. crude stocks decreased by 8.1 million barrels. Gasoline stocks are at their lowest since 2014, and diesel stocks have not been this low since 2005. The market is becoming increasingly fragile each day.

The gap created by the halt of the daily 13 million barrel flow through the Strait of Hormuz is currently being covered by stocks. But stocks are not infinite. Each day, stocks diminish, and as the strait remains closed, countries are increasing their strategic reserve usage. When stocks reach critical levels, price reactions tend to be sharp. Refinery margins remain high, which is another indicator of product market tightness.

In terms of global risk appetite, rising oil prices directly impact inflation and expectations of interest rate cuts. The outcome of Iran-U.S. negotiations regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz will be decisive. Until then, geopolitical premiums will continue to be embedded in the price.
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