Oil prices explode overnight! Donald Trump’s “Freedom Plan” suddenly hits the brakes, can Bitcoin still reach 100k?

During the May Day holiday, the market originally thought that the “money printing + oil price reduction + risk asset stimulation” trifecta was finally coming. But unexpectedly, Bitcoin, which had just gained momentum, hadn’t even stabilized at $80k before the Fuchairah oil tank attack directly blew up the crude oil market into a “red hot” mode. Brent crude oil surged to $114, and Wall Street traders instantly shifted from “risk on” to “risk off” to protect themselves.
The core issue is actually very simple: Trump’s “Freedom Plan” is fundamentally based on a low oil price environment. Once energy prices spiral out of control, U.S. inflation will reignite. Every $10 increase in oil prices cuts the Federal Reserve’s chances of cutting interest rates. The market originally fantasized about a “loose monetary policy bull market,” but suddenly it turned into a “high oil price + high interest rates + high volatility” triple high scenario.
And Iran is also in a delicate situation. Although the Oman negotiations are set to begin, both sides are “stubborn.” The U.S. wants to reduce enriched uranium, while Iran hopes to lift sanctions first. In plain language: one wants to receive first, the other wants to pay first. Neither wants to back down.
The most dangerous thing next isn’t war, but “loss of market expectations.” If oil prices continue to rise, tech stocks in the U.S. will be hit first; the dollar index will strengthen again; gold will continue to be favored by funds. As for Bitcoin? In the short term, it’s more like “high beta tech stocks,” and when risk appetite drops, it’s often the first to get hit.
My strategy is simple: during high oil prices, don’t chase the rally. Gold, energy, and defense industries are defensive; in the crypto market, only buy core assets on dips, avoid high-leverage altcoins. Because the biggest risk in the market now isn’t a decline, but “oscillating volatility that traps people.” The most terrifying thing about a bull market has never been a crash, but making you think every day that the bull has returned.