#CryptoMarketRecovery - Analysis: Bitcoin price could collapse to $50,000 if the "most important" bear market test fails.

A new Bitcoin (BTC) price analysis states that Bitcoin is approaching an "important" resistance hurdle in the bear market.
- Key Points
It can be said that Bitcoin faces its most critical resistance battle at the $84,000 level.
The analysis warns that failure to regain the 200-day trend line opens the door to a drop to the lowest levels of $50,000.
The bullish support range must hold in the event of a corrective phase.
Bitcoin faces a battle to avoid "continuing the downtrend cycle"
In a post on X on Wednesday, cryptocurrency investment firm TradingShot revealed the next key decision point for optimistic Bitcoin investors.
Bitcoin's price movement continues to test the $82,000 level, according to TradingView data, but the area around $84,000 will be crucial to restore support in the next phase.
A chart of the BTC/USD pair on an hourly basis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
TradingShot wrote: "Bitcoin is preparing to test its 200-day moving average, the most important resistance level in the bear cycle, but has already entered the consolidation zone formed from a previous low."
The chart compares the current price performance with the 2022 bear market, with the 200-day simple moving average in the middle.
At that time, the BTC/USD pair retested the 200-day simple moving average from below after initially losing it, but the recovery failed — resulting in a move to new lows on a macro level.
The analysis continues: "This is a familiar pattern formed by Bitcoin during downtrends, and it was clearly present during the 2022 bear cycle where these consolidation zones formed from a previous low that was later tested as resistance."
A weekly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Source: TradingShot/X
If history repeats, TradingShot expects a significant correction, with a lower target of $50,000.
The report concludes that "a rejection now at the 'stepwise' pattern will confirm Bitcoin's continued downtrend to $50,000, while a breakout would invalidate it."
As Cointelegraph also noted, the $50,000 zone has long been favored by traders who see the bear market continuing.
- Bitcoin Price Support Range as the "Main Focus"
If the 200-day simple moving average is the resistance level to overcome, then the two trend lines just below the price are essential to keep as support, according to analysts.
The so-called bullish support zone, consisting of the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average, is near $78,000.
In some of its latest analyses on X, trading firm Cryptic Trades stated that the support zone should remain the "main focus."
They wrote on Wednesday alongside an illustrative chart: "I believe that as long as the price remains above this zone, and the formation of the bottom in April 2025 around $76,000, the broader market structure will remain intact."
The other key level to watch is the long-term support zone marked in purple around $84,000, where we may see a short-term rejection.
BTCUSD
A daily chart of the BTC/USD pair. Source: Cryptic Trades/X
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