These days I see people again saying "Stablecoin supply increased = it's about to take off" and "ETF net inflow = spot market will definitely follow" as if playing a game of match the pairs, but honestly, correlation does not equal causation... An increase in stablecoins could just mean people are arbitraging, market making, or simply waiting on the sidelines for opportunities; how that ETF money flows might not necessarily follow the path you expect into small coins.

And that unlock calendar, recently it’s been repeatedly used to scare people, making it seem like as soon as the alarm rings, everyone dumps the market. I once lost out because of this: I couldn’t understand what was happening on-chain, and KOLs were all pushing the same narrative, so I got excited and tried to follow along, but the more I looked, the more confused I got. In the end, I thought, “If I don’t understand, I won’t act,” closed the app and went to listen to music... The next day, after my emotions settled, I realized that doing nothing is actually one of the most cost-effective strategies. Let’s leave it at that for now.