Looking at the NASDAQ's annual line, you can actually understand one issue:

At this stage, the long-term holding strategy for ordinary people isn't that simple.
Many people hear "long-term holding" and interpret it as buying and not moving, ignoring dips, and not selling when prices rise.
But the problem is, when assets have already reached this position, long-term holding faces not just normal fluctuations, but collective overextension in valuation, liquidity, profit expectations, and market sentiment.
Buffett holding 400 billion USD in cash is not without reason.
Because he himself is a long-term investor.
If he buys now, short-term gains of 10%, 20%, 30%... he may not sell either, because his system isn't about swing trading.
But if a real downturn cycle begins later, those initial unrealized gains could be quickly wiped out, or he could even fall back into a long period of retracement.
So often, the real difficulty isn't predicting the right direction, but understanding what you're really doing:
Is it trading?
Swing trading?
Long-term allocation?
Or just because you're afraid of missing out, giving yourself a reason for "long-termism" to chase the high?
Long-term holding is certainly not wrong,
I also prefer to buy and hold for at least a 5-year cycle.
But the premise of long-term holding is that the position you buy, the asset quality, cash flow, valuation safety margin, and how many years you can endure not making money.
Otherwise, so-called long-termism can easily turn into:
When prices rise, claiming to be an investor; when they fall, being forced to become a long-term shareholder.
At this stage, I personally still prefer to keep a large amount of cash and observe slowly.
Missing out on a rally essentially doesn't mean a loss of capital costs.
But locking yourself in at high levels could be very costly.
Most of the time, not rushing into investments still leaves you with money.
One reckless investment could leave you passive for years...