#比特币站稳8万关口

The “Free Plan” is, in essence, a short-term intervention tool used by the Trump administration to curb oil prices by releasing strategic reserves or applying diplomatic pressure. Based on past experience (such as the joint reserve release in 2021), the suppression effect of such plans on oil prices usually lasts for several weeks. But this time, due to the attack on the Fouchair oil tanks that sent Brent surging to $114, geopolitical risks have outweighed policy intervention. If the attack is confirmed to be related to Iranian proxy forces, and negotiations in Oman do not yield a breakthrough, the plan could be paused for at least 1-2 months—until the market confirms that supply will not be further disrupted. In the short term, the White House is more likely to prioritize diplomatic de-escalation rather than restarting price controls.
With the Oman talks approaching, Iran typically adopts a “policy at the margins”: it shows toughness before negotiations (such as accelerating enrichment progress) to gain leverage. The current high oil prices benefit Iran (increasing its export revenue), but they also raise domestic inflation pressures. It is expected that Iran will not soften on the core issue of uranium enrichment, and instead will be willing to discuss secondary topics such as verification and transparency. Real concessions will only occur after the US lifts some sanctions. Therefore, the probability that this week’s Oman talks will deliver a substantive breakthrough is low, and the market will continue pricing in a “deadlock + potential conflict.”
· Crude Oil: Brent at $114 has already priced in a short-term risk premium. If there are no new attacks or a Strait of Hormuz blockade, oil prices may pull back to the $105-110 range; but an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities or US military involvement could instantly push prices to $130+.
· Risk Assets (BTC, etc.): Bitcoin has just broken above 80K, relying on improved risk sentiment. If high oil prices persist, it will intensify stagflation concerns (rates are difficult to cut, liquidity tightens), putting risk assets under pullback pressure. In the short term, BTC may trade in a range of 78K-82K, waiting for clarity on the geopolitical situation. Once oil prices break above $120, the market may “sell everything for cash,” and Bitcoin could retreat to below $75K.
The market is in a fragile balance between “geopolitics vs. policy regulation.” The length of the pause under the Free Plan depends on whether the next round of attacks occurs; Iran will not easily soften its stance on uranium enrichment; crude oil will remain volatile at high levels, and risk assets should be wary of a second selloff. Investors should watch the statements from the Oman talks and the restoration of Fouchair Port.