Summary and Macro Risk Alerts

Comprehensive Assessment

· Core variable ranking: ETF capital flows (institutional demand) > Federal Reserve leadership change and macro policies > Geopolitical developments
· Short-term direction: Bitcoin remains in a bullish dominance pattern above $82,000; Ethereum is approaching the $2,400 resistance, with a clear expectation of a rebound linked to other assets, but a breakout requires volume support; overall trend weaker than BTC, ETH/BTC exchange rate remains an important indicator to watch
· Medium-term expectation: If key resistance zones at $84,000-$85,000 can be effectively broken, Bitcoin may challenge the extended target of $87,000-$92,000; Ethereum needs to stabilize above $2,400-$2,460 before opening an upward channel toward $2,550-$2,800

⚠️ Core Risks to Watch in May

· Policy shift risk: The timing window for Kevin Warsh to succeed as Federal Reserve Chair (May 15), with a weak outlook for rate cuts throughout 2026, maintaining a high-interest environment will continue to exert macro pressure on crypto assets
· Halving cycle time window: Major historical turning points often occur around 750 days after halving; recent periods require close attention to potential pullback pressures before mid-May
· Long and short leverage risk: Currently, perpetual funding rates remain in negative territory (negative for several consecutive days), combined with open interest rising to high levels, indicating that short positions are saturated; once key resistance zones at $80,000-$84,000 are broken, a large-scale short squeeze could trigger intense volatility, beware of chain liquidations caused by leverage.
$BTC ‌
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