Bitcoin (BTC): Verified Above $82,000, Bullish Setup Established

1. Latest Market Data

Bitcoin continues to maintain a strong upward trend today. As of the time of writing, the BTC/USD price is roughly within the $82,000–$82,300 range. During the day, it once touched $82,364.71, reaching a new phase high. Data from Eastmoney and several other major platforms also confirm that Bitcoin broke through $82,000 intraday, with a gain of about 1.37%. CoinGlass shows Bitcoin’s current price at $81,470, with a 24-hour increase of +0.23% and a 7-day cumulative gain of +6.51%, and a circulating market cap of approximately $1.632 trillion.

The price has successfully held above the key psychological level of $80,000 for multiple consecutive days, demonstrating strong bullish control capability and solid buy-side follow-through.

2. Core Driving Logic

① ETF capital continues to flow in, and institutional demand far exceeds supply: This is the strongest bullish signal right now. Data shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to see inflows since early May, recording net inflows for the fifth consecutive week. In the week of May 1, the overall net inflow was approximately $154 million. The total net inflow for April from Bitcoin ETFs was about $2.44 billion, the strongest monthly performance since October 2025. Institutional demand for Bitcoin currently exceeds the amount of new supply by 500%. Miner reserves have fallen to a ten-year low, and persistent buy-side pressure continues to push prices higher.

② The Federal Reserve leadership change and reshaping of policy expectations: Kevin Warsh has passed the vote in the Senate Banking Committee, and is highly likely to replace Powell as the next Federal Reserve Chair on May 15. The market expects that after Warsh takes office, there may be new changes to the interest rate path and the monetary policy framework, and macro uncertainty may be easing. At the same time, the CLEAR bill is about to enter a Senate vote, and expectations of clearer regulation are also boosting market sentiment.

③ Geopolitical risk continues to cool down: As negotiations on a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran make positive progress, Nasdaq futures rise in parallel, and risk appetite rebounds. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is becoming more stable, and oil prices no longer suppress the crypto market with additional inflation-fear pressure.

④ Expected time window for the halving cycle: The halving in April 2024 is now about 750 days away. Historically, around the 750th day after the halving, key turning points often occur. Some analysts believe current prices are at elevated levels and there may be a risk of a pullback, so traders should stay alert.

3. Technical Analysis and Key Levels

Moving Average System: The BTC price continues to trade above both the short-term and medium-term moving averages. The $75,000–$78,000 range forms a solid dynamic support zone. The main long-term resistance is mainly around the 200-day moving average (about $82,000–$83,000), and this area is the current primary consolidation-and-suppression zone.

Support and Resistance Levels:

· First Support: $81,000–$81,500 (intraday short-term defense zone; futures support around $81,500)
· Core Support: $80,000–$80,500 (strong psychological level and the recent pullback area)
· Strong Support: $78,000–$78,500 (near the medium-term moving average; if it breaks, the trend needs to be reassessed)
· Short-term Resistance: $82,500–$82,700 (intraday high area; short-term faces pressure from profit-taking)
· Key Resistance: $84,000 (after a breakout, the bullish upward structure is further confirmed)
· Mid-term Target: $87,000–$92,000 (expansion targets after breaking $84,000)

Technical Indicators Hint: Both the hourly and 4-hour RSI have already approached the edge of being overbought, suggesting a possible need for a technical pullback in the short term. While the daily MACD histogram remains in positive territory, upward momentum has somewhat slowed, so high-level consolidation should be watched for.

4. Opening Position (Trade Entry) Strategies

Long Strategy (Conservative): Build long positions in stages in the $81,000–$81,500 range, with a stop-loss set below $80,000. First target: $82,500–$83,000. Second target: $84,000–$85,000.

Long Strategy (Aggressive, Chasing Rallies): If the price can effectively hold above $83,000 and trading volume continues to expand, you may chase longs with a light position size. Stop-loss: $81,800. Targets: $85,000–$87,000.

Short Strategy (Short-term): When price meets resistance in the $82,500–$83,000 zone and trading volume shrinks, try a small-size short. Stop-loss: above $83,500. Target: $81,000–$81,500.

Key Supports: $81,000 → $80,000 → $78,000

Key Resistances: $82,500 → $84,000 → $87,000
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