Under the dominant cycle of oil prices, how should cryptocurrency trading strategies be adjusted?



When Brent crude oil stabilizes above $110, we can no longer apply the thinking from low-inflation periods to allocate crypto assets. Rising oil prices boost inflation expectations, compress central bank easing space, and the duration of high-interest-rate environments may be extended. In this scenario, Bitcoin's "digital gold" attribute will be tested. In the short-term strategy, the cost-effectiveness of chasing gains near the 80k level is decreasing, and more emphasis should be placed on downside protection. The risk reversal portfolio in the options market is worth paying attention to. In terms of sectors, Web3 projects linked to energy may gain narrative support, but high-beta altcoins face greater risks. Overall, positions should be more flexible, avoiding betting on direction, safeguarding liquidity, and waiting for clarity on the Oman negotiations and the "Freedom Plan" before making further directional decisions.
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