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The pinned post was made on April 15, and the community information tag was labeled on April 14.
Bitcoin has been pushed up to this level—if it then wants to drop and break new lows, whether it’s a path in the second half of the bear market or a move that wicks downward to break the bottom and then flips upward, the difficulty is already very high for the bulls.
So the most likely scenario is Method 1.