History is always surprisingly similar. History is exactly the same. People do not learn any lessons from history. Bitcoin halves every four years. At the moment, the block reward is 3.125 every 10 minutes. The total supply is 21 million. Nearly 20 million have already been mined. It’s expected to be fully mined by 2140. This Bitcoin cycle will definitely break below the previous bull market peak of 69k. Starting now. Every bear-market low needs to fall below the previous bull market’s highest point. And the previous high was 69k. So this time, it will definitely fall below 69k. And a very strong support will form at 69k. That is, 70k is a very strong support. After it breaks below, there will be a decent, respectable rebound. But the long-term trend is still downward.

How low will it go? According to historical halving cycles: on December 2017, it was 20k, then it crashed to below 3000 by December 2018—an 85% plunge. In November 2021, Bitcoin hit 69k USD, reaching the lowest point after a year of decline. In November 2022, Bitcoin was 1.55k USD—a 77% drop.

So this time, Bitcoin’s downside will be around 77%. That means Bitcoin won’t fall below 30k. But Bitcoin will break below 69k USD. If it crashes by around 65%, then the bottom will be around 45k USD. When Bitcoin is around 30k–60k USD, that’s suitable for building positions. At least below 60k, the maximum loss is 50%—because 60k could crash to 30k. But below 60k is not suitable for going all-in and “catching the bottom.” Nor is it suitable to keep being bearish. Because the bottom is most likely around 30k–50k USD.

On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin’s all-time high will be 12.62万 USD. Then, after a year-long crash, around October 2026, the lowest price will occur. And the market will churn sideways at the bottom for several months—various panic emotions. When the panic index is around 10, it can be a time to enter. Price range: 30k–60k USD. Timing: around the end of 2026. Then hold until 2029, when Bitcoin will be sold at around 150k–250k USD. At least a 2–8x space.

And this is just Bitcoin. We can think about how many multiples those “trump cards” like sol and hype could have. But big capital will definitely favor Bitcoin, because Bitcoin’s market share is 60%. Bitcoin isn’t even just “playing” with digital currencies, is it? Because every project team only wants to scam your Bitcoin. Bitcoin is the ultimate form of digital currency.

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