Lately, I've been getting a feeling of "Did I miss something" when looking at on-chain data, and I only realized later: what you're seeing is actually a "photo" pieced together by nodes/RPC/indexers, and it's quite common for them to lag, miss, or replay... To put it simply, it's not that the chain isn't real, but that your entry points are not unified. Sometimes the wallet shows the funds haven't arrived yet, but switching to a different RPC suddenly shows it, and it's easy for your mindset to get carried away.

Recently, some places have been raising taxes and tightening regulations, then loosening them again, causing deposit and withdrawal expectations to fluctuate, making it easier to focus on that "real-time" data on the chain. The more you watch, the more anxious you become. I now define "long-term" very roughly: about a quarter, being able to withstand a few congestion episodes, a few interface glitches, a few policy shifts, and still adjust my positions according to my own plan—that's when I know I haven't gone off track. Anyway, I stick to low leverage + stablecoins for that small yield, taking it slow.