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#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin short-term holding cost basis considers $92k as the next price target

On-chain data shows that the upward trend in BTC price may not be over yet, but the resistance level at $84,000 could delay its recovery.
Bitcoin (BTC) buyers are regaining activity, pushing the price to a multi-month high of $82,240. On-chain indicators, including the short-term holder (STH) cost basis, suggest that BTC price may rise further, with the next major target at $92,000.
Key summary: Bitcoin holders are returning to profitability, increasing the likelihood of the price reaching $92,000. Bitcoin bulls must break through the $84,000 resistance level to continue the upward trend.
The next target price for Bitcoin is $92,000. BTC/USD has risen 37%, trading above $82,000, after dropping to a multi-month low of $60,000 on February 6. This rally has pushed Bitcoin’s price above its short-term holder cost basis, currently at $79,000.
The STH cost basis refers to the average purchase price of investors holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days. Historically, when prices rebound to this level, it often signals a prolonged recovery phase, as profit-taking investors tend to be less willing to sell and more inclined to increase their holdings. This shift can also attract new buyers and trigger short squeezes when short positions are closed.
When the price recovers to its realized price in April 2025, it increases by 30% within four weeks, approaching the upper limit of this indicator at $112,000. Similar situations occurred in October 2024, October 2023, and January 2023, with BTC prices rising to the same on-chain levels, as shown in the chart below.
If Bitcoin breaks above this line, it is very likely to reach $92,423 in the short term, about 13% higher than the current price. If the price “can find sustained support above this level,” it will confirm that the 50% drop from the $126,000 all-time high is just a “mid-cycle correction.”
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s STH Spend Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has turned positive, indicating early signs of a market shift. “Markets tend to transition from accumulation phases to early bull markets.” Bitcoin’s price needs to break through $84,000 to gain support. The weekly close above the 20-week exponential moving average and the real market mean of $78,300 suggests a bullish outlook, leading traders to believe Bitcoin can continue rising from current levels.
Whether Bitcoin’s rally can continue now depends on whether it can break through the supply zone between $82,000 and $84,000.
Bitcoin is retesting the $80k low area, “which corresponds to the November lows, and the daily 200MA/EMA are slightly higher.”
Note that the 200-day moving average and the 200-day simple moving average are $82,600 and $83,402, respectively. This is an “important threshold” for Bitcoin bulls, “if the price rises, it may rebound further above $90k; but if it falls, the price could hover around $80,000 for a while.” If it breaks through the $84,000 resistance level, the BTC/USD pair could rise to $92,000.