#Gate广场五月交易分享

Today’s Gold Market Analysis

1. Core Market Data

International Spot Gold: Strongly broke through the $4,700 per ounce level intraday, with London Gold reaching a high of $4,708.56 per ounce, closing at $4,696.03 per ounce, a daily increase of 3.08% (Source: Professional Financial Data Terminal).

Futures Market: COMEX gold futures rose simultaneously by 3.11%, trading at $4,710.4 per ounce.

2. Driving Factors

Geopolitical Risks Dominant: Easing US-Iran tensions, the Strait of Hormuz expected to reopen, international oil prices plummeted, inflation expectations declined, and gold rebounded accordingly.

Dollar and Crude Oil Linkage: Weakening dollar combined with a sharp pullback in Brent crude oil further opened up space for gold prices to rise.

Technical Buying Intervention: Gold prices touched a more-than-one-month low (around $4,500 per ounce) in the previous trading day, with strong oversold rebound momentum.

3. Market Sentiment and Positions

Bullish Positions: Spot gold long positions account for 70%, in a relatively strong zone (overbought threshold at 80%).

Position Changes: Net long positions decreased compared to yesterday, some investors took profits during the rebound, but buying on dips remains active.

4. Key Resistance and Support Levels

Short-term Support: $4,500 per ounce (technical bottom).

Resistance Zone: $4,640–$4,895 per ounce (needs to break through to confirm continued upward trend).

5. Market Outlook

Short-term: High probability of oscillation at high levels, caution against rapid technical correction after sharp rise. The Federal Reserve’s expectation to maintain high interest rates still suppresses non-yield assets.

Mid- to Long-term: Institutions are generally optimistic:

Goldman Sachs bullish to $5,400 per ounce, JPMorgan Chase to $6,300 per ounce (supported by central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization trends, and asset portfolio hedging needs).

6. Trading Recommendations

Consider light short positions, with stop-loss set above 4,800 points.