I recently came across an interesting market commentary, where a co-founder of a derivatives exchange discussed the potential Bitcoin reserve plans of the U.S. government and new cryptocurrency regulations. He believes these are all negative signals.

His logic is straightforward: governments typically buy and sell assets for political gain rather than economic benefit, which is a fundamental problem. More importantly, he questions what practical role Bitcoin actually plays for the U.S. government itself. In his view, the Trump administration might just declare the mission accomplished based on Bitcoin's current price.

Regarding regulation, he expressed a deeper concern. The close relationship between the new government and cryptocurrency donors could strengthen the monopoly power of certain large institutions, such as a U.S. exchange and traditional financial giants. These vested interests, with privileged access to the system, can easily push out potential competitors.

For the future market, he predicts Bitcoin might fall back to the levels seen in the fourth quarter of last year, around $70,000 to $75,000. His reasoning is that, although the crypto community has elevated Trump, cryptocurrencies are not actually a priority for this administration. He also mentioned that while Trump acts quickly on tariffs and other policies, his response to cryptocurrency has been slow, which highlights the issue.

Interestingly, Bitcoin has already risen to about $81,600, well above his expected retracement range. This reminds us that the actual market trend often exceeds many people's expectations. In any case, the impact of regulation policies and government attitudes on this market is definitely worth ongoing attention.