According to The Kobeissi Letter, 70 minutes before Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran were close to reaching the "14 Points" agreement to end the war, the market saw approximately $920 million worth of crude oil short positions. It states that at 3:40 AM Eastern Time today, with no major news, nearly 10k crude oil short contracts were established, with a notional value of about $920 million; at 4:50, Axios reported that the U.S. was close to reaching a Memorandum of Understanding to end the Iran war; by 7:00, oil prices had fallen more than 12%, and the aforementioned crude oil shorts had made a profit of about $125 million. A few minutes later, Iran launched the "Persian Gulf Strait Management Authority," and oil prices subsequently rose by 8%.

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