Tonight, I believe BTC will still fluctuate slightly upward; in the past month, it has been moving in small steps with a slight upward bias, but now it’s approaching the 83,000-85,000 sell-off zone, which was also the previous butterfly pattern’s selling area. High-risk points should be noted.

The 4-hour bullish candle pushed the price to 82,800, and the daily chart is above the BOLL upper band, indicating a bullish trend. However, the 4-hour MACD divergence has already triggered, and the daily RSI is also beginning to be overbought. The price has reached new highs, but the position hasn't kept up, which is a sign of insufficient continuation.

Tonight, focus on 82,800; if it breaks above, there is room for further upward movement; if it cannot hold, it becomes a mid-term resistance level, and caution is needed for a pullback to the 81,400 daily BOLL upper band.

As long as the 1-hour closing stays above 82,800, the mid-term trend is upgraded. I think the next target will be around 84,100, and further up is 85,000. If it declines, a 1-hour close below 81,700 indicates support at 81,000, which is an integer key level, and the lower boundary at the 1-hour BOLL lower band at 80,700 is the last bottom line. Losing this rebound would mark the end of the move.

Tonight until tomorrow morning, the most important thing to watch is whether the daily close can return above 82,000, which will directly determine if the bullish outlook for tomorrow remains. If it drops below 81,000, the daily chart will form an upper shadow pin, and 82,800 will shift from a contested level to a mid-term resistance.

Regarding the mid-term, I believe BTC will fluctuate upward in the next few trading days, but confirmation of 82,800 is needed to upgrade the trend. There are three pieces of evidence: the daily BOLL upper band at 81,362 has been broken above, with three candles running along the band; the daily MA short-term and mid-term are in a bullish alignment, with MA20 aligned across four periods, indicating multi-timeframe resonance; the Fibonacci retracement from 74,868 to 82,828 on the daily chart shows the current price still in a high retracement zone.

Counter-evidence: the weekly DMI still shows MDI slightly greater than PDI, and the weekly MACD is still in a death cross below zero, so the weekly trend is still a corrective rebound, not a trend reversal.

Strengthening signals: the daily close remains above 81,400; after breaking through 82,800 on the 4-hour chart, a pullback and hold; the weekly MACD continues to form a golden cross with expanding momentum. Breaking signals: the daily close below 81,000; a 4-hour divergence with increased volume and a downward move through 80,700; the weekly RSI falling back below 50. If these occur, this rebound will end immediately, switching back to a weak correction.

Tonight, the market could turn at any moment. The 80,700-82,800 range is very critical!