Recently, I have been conducting an in-depth study of the logic behind the US-Iran war, and found that this conflict is far more complex than it looks on the surface.

At face value, it seems to be about nuclear weapons. But to understand the real reasons behind the US-Iran war, you have to dig deeper. The 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal originally froze Iran’s nuclear program, but Trump directly withdrew from it in 2018, a move that restarted the uranium enrichment race. Now Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium has already exceeded 400 kilograms, bringing it very close to weapons-grade levels. The logic on the American side is clear: the window for nuclear armament is closing. If they don’t act now, there won’t be another chance later.

But behind all this lie even deeper historical grudges. In 1953, the CIA planned a coup that overthrew Prime Minister Mosaddegh and took control of Iran’s oil resources. In 1979, the Islamic Revolution turned Iran from a US Middle East ally into a mortal enemy. From then on, Tehran expanded regionally through proxy forces such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Syria. This state of “shadow war” persisted for decades, only evolving into open confrontation when the situation in Gaza heated up.

Most crucial of all is the energy card. Iran has 208 billion barrels of oil and 1,200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and it controls the Strait of Hormuz—the throat of global oil shipping, through which 20% of the world’s oil flow passes every day. If Iran has nuclear weapons, it can pose a tangible threat to global energy flows, driving up inflation and transportation costs and pulling the entire global market along with it. This is the economic logic behind the US-Iran war.

Iran’s counterattack is also direct—attacking US military bases in Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, Bahrain, and Jordan. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states immediately declared support for the United States, which could mean the Arab world may be drawn into a regional war, forcing a reshuffle of the alliance landscape across the Middle East.

In the final analysis, this is not just a nuclear issue—it is a contest of global energy strategy. Once the situation in the Strait of Hormuz escalates, fluctuations in energy prices will directly hit the crypto market and global asset pricing. The deep underlying drivers of the US-Iran standoff are far more complex than what headlines suggest, and they are well worth long-term attention.