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QCP: BTC has returned above $80k, but the options market has not yet confirmed the breakout
Deep Tide TechFlow News, May 6th, QCP released a market analysis indicating that as Trump paused the “Project Freedom” operation, the geopolitical risk premium has receded, oil prices have fallen, U.S. stocks have risen, and the dollar has weakened, with BTC returning above $80k. It is viewed as a high-beta asset performance driven by improved liquidity, a softer dollar, and increased risk appetite. However, the options market has not yet confirmed a full breakout, with the 1-month at-the-money implied volatility around 41%, front-end volatility weakening, and the 30-day risk reversal still at about negative 5.5 volatility, indicating elevated put protection. QCP also warns that the Japanese market is becoming a new macro pressure point; if the yen continues to weaken and Japanese government bond yields rise, it could marginally tighten global liquidity. Currently, BTC needs to effectively break through the $82k to $83k range.