For almost two decades, the crypto community has been speculating about who is really hiding behind the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. And recently, HBO announced that it is preparing a documentary film that supposedly will finally reveal this secret. Naturally, a wave of speculation immediately began on prediction markets like Polymarket.

One of the most popular theories points to Nick Szabo—an American cryptographer and computer scientist who, incidentally, contributed to the development of cryptography even before Bitcoin appeared. If you dig deeper, it becomes clear why Nick Szabo is considered a serious candidate.

Let’s start with the fact that Szabo came up with the concept of smart contracts back in 1994—an idea that later became the foundation of the entire blockchain industry. But that’s not all. In 1998, a full decade before Bitcoin’s debut, Nick Szabo proposed his own cryptocurrency called bit gold. Sounds familiar? And yes, because bit gold had a striking similarity to Bitcoin: it was a fully digital currency with no intermediaries, using proof-of-work to solve the double-spending problem.

Szabo himself once wrote about his idea: people have always depended on trust in a third party when it comes to the value of money, but the history of the 20th century showed just how unreliable that is. Inflation, hyperinflation—everything proves the need for an alternative. Sounds like a motivation that could have led someone to create Bitcoin, doesn’t it?

Szabo took his education seriously—he graduated from the University of Washington with a degree in computer science, and then earned a PhD in law from George Washington University. The combination of cryptography, law, and computer science is exactly what’s needed to build a revolutionary financial system.

There are also other indirect clues. Analysts note the astonishing similarity between Szabo’s and Satoshi’s writing styles. Both cited economist Carl Menger. Both are known for their paranoia about privacy. And most interestingly, Nick Szabo constantly denies that he is Satoshi—in contrast to other contenders, who instead actively claim their rights.

As for the odds on prediction markets, Nick Szabo is currently leading with a double-digit percentage probability, while all the other candidates remain in single digits. This suggests that the crypto community is taking this theory seriously.

After all, if history has taught us anything, it’s that those who openly claim to be Satoshi are almost certainly not. And Nick Szabo? He just continues to stay silent and work in the shadows, as befits the true creator of Bitcoin.