People say that strong forces don’t need to speak at the top; time has come to Wednesday, and this week has also pulled up nearly 5,000 points of space. In the evening, it once pushed higher to around 82,800, facing pressure there as well—which is also arriving near the high point we expected. As for Ethereum, after breaking through the 2400 level, there hasn’t been much follow-through. It’s still the same kind of stage-by-stage resistance as always. In the future, although it has stood above 2400, the suppression on the upside should still remain. Unless it breaks through clearly and holds steady with sufficient volume, it will be difficult to continue the upward move. In this round of rebound, the previous expectation was to guess the top around 83,000, and now it has naturally reached that spot. We’ll still carry out operations according to our expected “psychological” plan: entries should be light, with a light-position layout.

From the current market perspective, overall it looks like a larger-cycle upward channel. After high-level consolidation at the top, it gave a further attempt to break out and probe higher; however, it is still under pressure at the lower boundary of the prior upward channel. In the future, it may still go through some pressure-and-correction movement. And in terms of intraday volume, overall indicators have also fallen into a certain overbought range. With such a structure, it will most likely play out as a correction momentum. In terms of volume, it can’t keep up to support further continuation. Also, there hasn’t been a situation where it just keeps rising. Healthy pull-ups are usually accompanied by some correction. After the future pullback, the main thing to watch is the location of the prior consolidation range. Whether it can form a certain support to drive the bulls to further increase volume and probe higher, and whether further retracement with volume will lead to a larger-cycle adjustment structure—if so, then you can take a bearish view for the swing trade, aiming to catch the retracement. In terms of operations: currently, above 82,000, it’s not recommended for everyone to keep looking bullish, to avoid chasing into a rally and then getting trapped by a sell-off. The key resistance has become quite obvious, so operations should focus mainly on being bearish.

For “big pie” in this round of adjustment, pay attention to the 81,500 area—namely, the larger-cycle upward channel on the 4-hour chart. Determine whether it forms a certain top-bottom conversion, and then consider taking profit on short positions. If it breaks through, continue to watch around 79,500. At the same time, on rebounds, pay attention to the weekly 120-day moving average, using a stop-loss reference above 83,500. For Ethereum, look to short directly at 2410–2420, and watch the downside toward 2380–2350. #比特币站稳8万关口 $BTC $ETH